Development Success Solutions
Security Analysis
1- The initial of the peace agreement document in Alger by Mali government, and loyalist groups and reticent (refusal) of CMA (Azawad movement coordination) to initial.
From malijet
2- Discovery of a hidden piles of weapon in Samanko not far the Malian president house on 02 March. About thirty suspected people, fled leaving behind them slight and heavy weapons, grenade, rockets, and sophisticated mobile phones.
From malijet
3- A firing in a restaurant of Bamako called “la tarrasse” in hippodrome by jihadists from al Mourabitoune group making 5 casualties including 1 French, 1 Belgian and 3 Malians
From malijet
4- Two young Arab teenagers of 15 and 12 years old killed and burned by Gao population suspecting them to place explosives nearby the river brigade without tangible prove.
I- Situation:
March in Bamako has been marked by situations very difficult to grasp. So far any terrorist attack had happened in Bamako since earlier in March when a commando jihadist shot on people at “la terrasse restaurant” killing 2 expatriates, 3 Malians and injuring Many People. That event caught people by surprise because people were thinking that Bamako is well secured though the national police called on prudence few months ago in relation with a potential terrorist attack in Bamako during New Year celebration. In fact according to the police sources the attack was going to be held at a place highly frequented by westerners. That information was received informally by many people but it was far from threating people because they thought jihadist could not be in Bamako.
Since 2012 it was said that terrorists have many informers and militants in the capital but people were not taking it seriously.
Definitely the discovery of the piles of weapons in Samako not far from the Bamako, and the attack in the center of Bamako showed that terrorist have a certain control all over the country. However some questions remain without formal answers:
- Why Bamako?
- Why that attack now?
- Does the attack have a link with the Alger peace agreement?
- What is the true message of that act?
Nevertheless the Malian state security has calmed the populations by killing one guy who took part to the restaurant attack, in Sokorodji/ Bamako and arresting three more accomplices that facilitated the attack on “la terrasse restaurant”.
II- Analysis
From the incidence in Bamako we can conclude that terrorists are everywhere and they could strike in all the parts of Mali. They are having representatives in different places merged in population that execute or facilitate terrorist missions for them. Like the case of “la terrasse” where a shop owner selling in Bamako in Magnambougou for more than 15 years was the facilitator. That attack was targeting westerners but the fact that it is happening just after the initialing of the peace agreement by Mali government is an important element that should be taken into account to characterize terrorists’ hostility for that document supported by international community.
As a matter of fact, despite of the work achieved in Ager for peace CMA started pointing out new points concerning the political-institutional aspects they want to include in the agreement, these are some among them:
- The official acknowledgement of Azawad as a political, geographic and juridical entity,
- Creation of an inter-regional assembly composed of the regions of Tombouctou, Gao, Kidal, Ménaka and Taoudénie where the prerogative will be from specific domains for Azawad,
- Postpone all election organization until the return of refugees and the territory distribution implementation,
- Plan and determine a quota to be given to Azawad for sovereignty departments, high state services, diplomatic representations and international organizations,
Security and defense aspects:
- The security and defense forces within Azawad will be made of 80% of Azawad people as well as in commandment levels
- Settle mixt special units made of 80% of Azawad people during interim period,
- CMA defines itself the list of fighters who will be part of the reconstituted armed and security forces and the cantonment for those to be reinserted,
- The defense and security forces will be under the commandment of someone from Azawad
- Consider the creation or the use of militia as a criminal act
Development:
- Allocation of a special fund to Azawad from the national budget up to 40% within 20 years of period in order to resorb 50 years of delay,
- The mining and energetic resources exploitation for Azawad submitted to the prior authorization of inter-regional assembly after the notice of regional assembly. A quota of 20% of production will be allocated to Azawad, with priority to the concerned region.
DSS thinks, after the CMA refusal to initial the peace agreement we could now doubt about their will for peace
DSS FEBRUARY SECURITY ANALYSIS
I- Introduction:
2015 started with a climate of anger and tensions in the whole country of Mali, characterized by undesirable events such as:
1- Jihadist attack on the Malian army position in Nampala in the beginning of January resulting in 11 casualties within the Malian army.
These incidences have led to a widespread discontent among the Malian population against MINUSMAs presence in the country.
2- Demonstrations by the population of Gao on the 26th and the 27th of January against the MINUSMA decision to establish a “temporary security zone” with the CMA (Coordination of Azawad Army Movement) located between Anefis and Almoustarat. The situation escalated when MINUSMA forces started shooting towards the demonstrating crowds, resulting in 3 causalties and 18 injured.
3- Occupation of the Kidal aerodrome on the 20th of January, carried out by the Kidal population in support of the CMA (Coordination of Azawad Army Movement). The action is considered to be a response to the MINUSMA bombing of the CMA position in Tabankort.
I- Situation:
The Malian citizens are now confused about the mandate of MINUSMA, established by security council resolution 2100 on the 25th of April 2013 to support the political processes in Mali and to carry out a number of security-related tasks.
"With the unanimous adopting resolution 2164 of 25 June 2014 the Security Council amended the mandate of MINUSMA and decided that it should assure duties such us: ensuring security, stabilization and protection of civilians by supporting National polical dialogue and reconciliation, assisting and reestablishing the state authority and rebuilding the security sector, and the protection of human right in Mali." (If it is a quote you should have the source right after)
Since long time MINUSMA has been criticized by the Malian population for not having any insight and understanding of the activities carried out by the UN led mission. The criticism has deepened when MINUSMA seem to have established close relations with armed groups (CMA?) in Kidal area. MINUSMA have stated that the close relations are due to intense negotiations, an explanation that the Malian population are not satisfied with as they still have no clue about what is really going on.
After the shooting incidence by MINUSMA on demonstrating crowds in Gao, resulting in 3 casualties and 18 injured, people do not want to stay quiet anymore. The purpose of Gao’s demonstration was against the MINUSMA agreement to establish a temporary security zone with the CMA without the governments agreement or consent. Many questions were raised in Bamako:
- Why does MINUSMA shoot at civilians in Gao?
- Why does MINUSMA want that temporary security zone with the CMA?
- What is the real mandate of MINUSMA?
- A violent demonstration was carried out in Kidal, a few days before the pacific demonstration in Gao, how come MINUSMA did not end up shooting at the demonstrating crowd in Kidal, like they did in Gao?
- Are Kidal people more preferred, liked and important than the GAO population?
In the meantime the fifth round of negotiations between the Mali government and armed groups are going on in Algeria. So far there is no agreement on sustainable peace but the cease fire agreement signed by both parties and a conventional document for peace that should be signed by both parties (Mali government and CMA).
I- Security issues in the GAO and Tombouctou:
Serious efforts need to be done in terms of security in the Tombouctou and Gao regions that still are under control by Malian state. Development and humanitarian organizations and the population in cities or remote areas are facing number of difficulties linked to lack of security. DSS analyses point out several security challenges facing the regions:
1- Check points in Tombouctou and Gao are not well equipped to prevent even a single vehicle to get into the city by force;
2- Malian soldiers seem to lack discipline by for example flirting with girls instead of focusing on their duties;
3- Some vehicles enter the city without being checked as a cause to the prevalence of bribes;
4- There is no closer investigation about people entering the city;
5- Some sources affirmed that armed groups enter the city every night enabling them to analyze the security situation;
6- Civilians are having access to the Malian army camp;
7- Abence of the Malian army in many areas outside the city even in the closest areas to the city;
8- NGOs and the population are victims of theft by armed groups;
II- Conclusion:
Despite all the security problems, development work and humanitarian relief efforts are slowly progressing in the cities of Tombouctou and Gao. Since life in the cities is relatively safe and calm. But few western people from international organizations are on the ground in the cities, even though kidnapping by armed groups is mainly prevalent in more remote areas of the regions. Therefore the work conducted in remote areas are done by nationals. DSS considers any kind of activities involving sending western international workers to the remote areas of the north or even to the closest areas of the cities of Tombouctou and Gao as a huge security risk and therefore strongly advice against that.